Trump Faces a Midterm Verdict: Analysts Favor Democrats for the House, the Senate Is Uncertain — and New Jersey Votes Inside the Same Arithmetic
Reuters' Election Day file, published within the hour, frames Tuesday as a verdict on the first two years of the president's second term: Democrats need three House seats and four Senate seats, and history is against the party in power.
American voters will deliver a verdict on the first two years of President Donald Trump's second term in Tuesday's midterm elections, Reuters reported in its Election Day file, with polls and nonpartisan analysts favoring Democrats to wrest the House of Representatives from Republicans while control of the Senate remains uncertain. All 435 House seats are up for election, along with 35 of the Senate's 100 seats, and Democrats must flip at least three House seats and four Senate seats to win a majority in each chamber.
History is against the president's party: the sitting president's party has lost ground in Congress in all but two midterm elections since World War Two, Reuters reported, and Trump's approval rating is hovering near his all-time lows, dragged down by deep voter frustration over the war with Iran and the resulting rise in fuel prices. Opinion polls show voters most concerned about affordability. The president, who has held more than two dozen campaign rallies since the start of October, has told supporters repeatedly to pretend he is on the ballot.
The Senate fight is unfolding across nearly 10 closely contested races, most in Republican strongholds, and it produced a late jolt in Michigan, where Democrat Haley Stevens — who narrowly lost her party's primary — endorsed Republican former Representative Mike Rogers on Sunday against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. In the House, 47 races are widely seen as competitive, according to a Reuters analysis of the leading forecasters. New Jersey votes inside the same arithmetic: its Senate seat and all 12 House seats are on Tuesday's ballot, and the state's closely watched 7th District is one of the races that will help settle the House. Three dozen governors' races are also decided Tuesday.
