New Jersey's Early Vote Heads Into Its Final Day Past 855,000 Ballots, With Democrats Casting About Six in Ten
Two published counts frame the final day: 855,440 early ballots through October 30 in the Election Lab tally, and 952,656 advance ballots in the Globe's later count - both showing registered Democrats at roughly 59 percent of the early electorate, a measure of who has voted, not how.
New Jersey's early electorate is large, and it is disproportionately Democratic - as a matter of registration, which is all the numbers measure. The University of Florida Election Lab tally reported by NorthJersey.com and read by this desk counts 855,440 early votes in New Jersey as of October 30, based on Secretary of State data: 350,596 cast in person and 504,844 by mail. The On Point Politics tracker, also read this run, puts registered Democrats at 59.6 percent of those ballots and registered Republicans at 22.8 percent, with other voters at 17.6 percent.
A later count runs higher, as later counts do. The New Jersey Globe figures reported on October 31 put advance ballots at 952,656, with registered Democrats at 560,273 (58.8 percent), Republicans at 220,467 (23.1 percent) and unaffiliated and third-party voters at 171,916 (18.0 percent) - roughly 340,000 more ballots from registered Democrats than from registered Republicans. Both counts agree on the shape of the early vote even where their totals differ by date and method, and both carry the same warning, which this desk repeats plainly: party registration records who a voter is registered as, not which candidates that voter chose, and early totals do not predict Tuesday's outcome.
What remains is the Election Day electorate itself. Early sites close at 6 p.m. today, Sunday, after nine days; a mail ballot can still be requested in person at the county clerk until 3 p.m. Monday; and on Tuesday, November 3, polls are open 6 a.m. to 8 p.m. for a U.S. Senate seat and all 12 of the state's U.S. House seats. How much of the state is left to vote on Tuesday is the number no advance tally can supply.
