FDU Poll: New Jersey Democrats Lead Republicans 55 to 32 for Congress — and Affordability, Not Anything Else, Is Driving It
The final statewide reading before Election Day gives Democrats a 23-point generic-ballot lead. Ninety percent of voters call affordability important to their vote, 87 percent say gas prices — and just 10 percent now call themselves MAGA.
The last statewide poll of New Jersey's midterm cycle describes an electorate that has largely made up its mind about what the election is about. The Fairleigh Dickinson University Poll, released October 27 and surveyed among 807 likely voters, found 55 percent supporting Democratic congressional candidates against 32 percent for Republicans — a 23-point lead that widens to 59-33 among voters who say they are very likely to cast a ballot or already have.
What is driving it, on the poll's own numbers, is the cost of ordinary life. Ninety percent of respondents called affordability important to their vote and 87 percent said gas prices, ahead of immigration at 83 percent and the war in Iran at 82 percent. Democrats held their largest advantage — 58 to 31 — among voters prompted to think about affordability first. The demographic splits run the same way: voters under 30 favor Democrats 63 to 20, Hispanic voters 58 to 29, and independents 36 to 25, though a quarter of independents remain undecided.
One number in the poll will follow Republicans past Tuesday regardless of the district results: just 10 percent of New Jersey voters now describe themselves as MAGA, down from 16 percent in March and 27 percent in January 2024. Party loyalty itself remains strong — 91 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans back their own party's candidates. The poll measures statewide congressional preference, not individual districts, and this desk reports it as exactly that: the climate New Jersey's 12 House races and its Senate race are being decided in, with one day of voting left.
